The NFL Playoffs are here! For many a fan, this is one of the most exciting times of the year because the Super Bowl is right around the corner and each weekend in January is full of meaningful playoff football. Commentators, pundits, analysts, and all forms of talking heads love to postulate about the importance of home-field advantage. First of all, few, if any, of these “experts” are actually sport psychologists, so they’re talking about an area in which they are not particularly well educated. The point of this post is to educate you a little bit on what research has shown regarding the home-field advantage, or lack thereof.
Home-field advantage describes the perceived advantage, usually a psychological advantage, that the home team is said to have over the visiting team as a result of playing in familiar facilities and in front of supportive fans. But the real question is this: Do teams really win more at home than on the road? If the answer to this questions is no, then the home-field advantage is nothing more than a myth or cliché. Here’s what the research says.
Research has shown that teams do win more at home during the regular season. This is particularly true in basketball and hockey where the home-court/home-ice advantage is quite large. The effect is not as big for baseball and football. Researchers guess that the difference lies in the nature of the sports themselves – flow of the game, proximity of the fans, fan interaction, etc.
End of story? Afraid not. Despite slightly dated research here, Baumeister & Steinhilber (1984) found that the home-field advantage might be lost and possibly turn into a disadvantage once a team moves from the regular season to the post-season. In the World Series from 1924-1982 in series that went at least five games, the home team won 60% of the first two games … but only 40% of the last two games. Even more interesting, in the series that went a full seven games, the home team won only 38% of the time! Baumeister and Steinbilber found similar results in basketball. They concluded that the supposed “advantage” actually turned into a disadvantage as games became more critical and the pressure mounted.
Baumeister and Steinhilber’s findings have been replicated in an investigation of golf performance. Wright, Jackson, Christie, McGuire, and Wright (1991) looked at data on performance in the British Open Golf Championship and found that the scores of contending British golfers (or “home” players) deteriorated more than those of contending foreign players from the first to the final round. Additionally, Wright and Voyer (1995) found that ice hockey players who play in front of a supportive audience (i.e. home ice) perform less successfully than visiting players when they have the chance to capture a championship.
How did this happen? Further analysis indicated that in-game performance, measured by the simple statistics collected during every sporting event, varied between the home team and the visiting team. The home team had a significant decrease in performance while the visiting team maintained consistent performance throughout the playoffs. Researchers suggest that players put too much pressure on themselves to perform well in front of the home crowd while the visiting players have less expectations and can just go out and play.
HOWEVER (and this is a big “however”), since the Baumeister and Steinhilber research was published in 1984, six more World Series have gone the full seven game (and ironically, my St. Louis Cardinals have played in three of them, winning only the most recent one in 2011) and the home team won all six game sevens. (So to recap, from 1924-1982, only 38% of home teams won game seven but from 1984-2011, 100% of home teams won game seven of the World Series.) Followup data from the NBA from 1984-1994 showed that the home team won 18 consecutive seventh games during the playoffs (not just the NBA Finals). So it’s possible that modern coaches and athletes have adapted to the pressures and expectations of performing at home and are now maximizing the home-court advantage.
Really, point number three is the key. Until the home-court advantage can be completely validated, gamble lightly when it comes to picking postseason winners based on where they’re playing. And of course, none of this research investigated professional football (maybe checkout the Football Freakonomics article below for a counterpoint).
Related articles
- NFL Playoffs 2011: Which Home-Field Advantages Will Be the Greatest? (bleacherreport.com)
- Why Home-Field Advantage Is Vital for San Francisco 49ers’ Postseason Run (bleacherreport.com)
- New England Patriots: Home-Field Advantage Is Key to Super Bowl Run (bleacherreport.com)
- “Football Freakonomics”: How Advantageous Is Home-Field Advantage? And Why? (freakonomics.com)